The Price Of PVC Rose Initially And Then Declined in The First Quarter. I

In the first quarter of 2026, the PVC market showed a trend of "initially fluctuating at a low level, followed by a strong upward surge". From January to February, due to high inventory and weak demand from the real estate sector, the price remained at a low level. The mainstream price of the 5-type material produced by the calcium carbide method was 4,200 - 4,450 yuan per ton. In March, multiple favorable factors converged: the cancellation of export tax rebates, the conflict in the Middle East leading to a contraction in overseas supply, and the increase in the price of calcium carbide. The price accelerated its upward movement. As of April 2nd, the main contract of the PVC futures closed at 5,407 yuan per ton, up by more than 25% compared to the beginning of the year; the spot price was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of over 18%. The orders of downstream profiles and pipes enterprises improved, and the production rate rose to 65% - 70%. However, in April, the export tax rebate was cancelled and overseas demand weakened, and the market entered a "reality verification period". Analysts believe that in the second quarter, the price may fluctuate at a high level, with the core depending on the intensity of spring maintenance, the strength of the recovery of real estate demand, and the recovery of overseas supply.